Thanks fellas .. I'm not normally a wet lettuce, but working outdoors under current meteorological conditions (****ing cats and dogs) it's good to know I'm not alone.
Got the replacement axle stripped down to housing and drive unit with a stubborn steering damper on. Still too heavy/awkward to lift alone, but may have to brute force it a bit at a time since I won't be dismantling the final drive in this weather. Have to draw a line somewhere. Might have a luggage trolley or something somewhere, wish I'd thought to bring a sack barrow from work.
Aim is to get it all in the back of the disco in bits and limp back to MIL's for some level driveway space. She is an understanding and tolerant and gracious and beautiful and sagacious woman, and any more compliments anyone can think of.
Couldn't get the hub off last time, but outer bearing came out and had maybe 1-2mm play within the bearing. Not wonderful, but not too bad. Poked around at the inner, and it seemed similar. Packed it with grease before reassembling.
Far as I could see through the swivel housing fill hole (not much, but turned it all the way round and felt with a finger), outer cv looks good all the way round, no sign of swarf or loose bits.
Turning the final drive flange, there's a bit of scraping and a clunk toward the outboard end, but sounds like inboard of halfshaft seal, and no difference in sound with swivel fill plug out, which I would expect to reveal some clearer crunching or grinding if cv shot.
All seems consistent with broken shaft, but as you say, can't be sure until it's been fully stripped, so will be taking it easy and only driving if absolutely unavoidable, home - parts - driveway. If the weather clears I'll pull the top pin and grease it, and have another go at that hub.
While we're here, I heard somewhere that the diff can go into neutral. Is that right? I understand the transfer box has L, N, and H, and if it wasn't for my knocking when turning the diff, I'd suspect it'd got knocked out of drive and somehow not wanting to go back in? I did check when it happened since not a lot of confidence what with diff lock sometimes not disengaging properly, and having just found low range the other day. Thought it'd been locked out, but turned out it's in the middle.