How many 20 year old Prius's will there ever be.
Thats a fair point but the percentage of cars getting beyond 10 years old is on the decline. They will be driven out of the market place by policy and tighter controls, particularly emmisions etc.
A car worth £1,500 that needs a £5,000 battery pack is not going to be top of the used cars buyers list.
Again a good point but the same is true for most cars. How much is a short engine or a gearbox for a Rangie from LR. Nobody is going to put a new engine from a dealer into a 2001 Rangie either. You are comparing a new battery price from a main stealer to the value of the car. Ecomomies of scale and demand will bring down the price of the battery. Right now I have a Hilti 18V battery drill which, while once outstanding, is next to useless now due to bad batteries. Hilti charge over 180 for a replacement battery. There are companies in the UK who will re-cell the existing f**ked battery for 30. The same is happening in California with Prius batteries, its down to about $2,000 for a battery re-cell and the price is only going one direction as the car were originally sold with a 10year guarantee on the battery so market forces are only coming into play now.
That means they are going to be recycled more often than a normal car now is, so anything they save in CO2 output in their life will be lost in scrapping and making them more often. I think that is the point some make about them.
I think that is debatable and will have more to do with policy than the actual car. As said above, the reasons for scrapping out a Prius any earlier than any other car, while valid in the recent past, are diminishing rapidly. Policies like the scrappage schemes ran in many countries have a much bigger impact on the service life of the car than the actual ability of the car to last. Seanmulls 1995 P38 has 247,000 miles on it and is as sweet a drive as you'll get but is a bit like the 25 year old axe thats only had 3 heads and 5 handles over the course of its life. We both benefitted from a woman who had her dog of a 148,000 mile 98 DSE put down with the scrappage scheme (for a Megane:doh::doh
. That RR needed to be scrapped.
On the other hand my own mother put a 70,000 mile 1998 Avensis they'd bought in 1999 into the scheme just because the scheme was closing.
The car was like new except for 13 years worth of shopping trolley attacks and parking by ear
. That car had a genuine minimum 10 years left in it but was crushed because of policy
, unbelievable waste:doh: She went out and parked her new Auris using the same techniques she'd honed with Avensis and demolished the front corner
. Spent the money she'd saved on the scrappage scheme fixing damage she wouldn't have bothered fixing on the Avensis. Thats progress and carbon footprint reduction for you